A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela, D. C. Morton, L. Giglio, Y. Chen, G. R. Van Der Werf, P. S. Kasibhatla, R. S. DeFries, G. J. Collatz, S. Hantson, S. Kloster, D. Bachelet, M. Forrest, G. Lasslop, F. Li, S. Mangeon, J. R. Melton, C. Yue, J. T. Randerson

Resultado de la investigación: Contribución a una revistaArtículorevisión exhaustiva

308 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

Idioma originalInglés estadounidense
Páginas (desde-hasta)1356-1362
Número de páginas7
PublicaciónScience
Volumen356
N.º6345
DOI
EstadoPublicada - jun 30 2017
Publicado de forma externa

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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