A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela, D. C. Morton, L. Giglio, Y. Chen, G. R. Van Der Werf, P. S. Kasibhatla, R. S. DeFries, G. J. Collatz, S. Hantson, S. Kloster, D. Bachelet, M. Forrest, G. Lasslop, F. Li, S. Mangeon, J. R. Melton, C. Yue, J. T. Randerson

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch Articlepeer-review

729 Scopus citations

Abstract

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1356-1362
Number of pages7
JournalScience
Volume356
Issue number6345
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 30 2017
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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