A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela; D. C. Morton; L. Giglio; Y. Chen; G. R. Van Der Werf; P. S. Kasibhatla; R. S. DeFries; G. J. Collatz; S. Hantson; S. Kloster; D. Bachelet; M. Forrest; G. Lasslop; F. Li; S. Mangeon; J. R. Melton; C. Yue; J. T. Randerson

doi:10.1126/science.aal4108

A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela, D. C. Morton, L. Giglio, Y. Chen, G. R. Van Der Werf, P. S. Kasibhatla, R. S. DeFries, G. J. Collatz, S. Hantson, S. Kloster, D. Bachelet, M. Forrest, G. Lasslop, F. Li, S. Mangeon, J. R. Melton, C. Yue, J. T. Randerson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

666 Scopus citations

Abstract

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1356-1362
Number of pages	7
Journal	Science
Volume	356
Issue number	6345
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4108
State	Published - Jun 30 2017
Externally published	Yes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.aal4108

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Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., Van Der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., DeFries, R. S., Collatz, G. J., Hantson, S., Kloster, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Yue, C., & Randerson, J. T. (2017). A human-driven decline in global burned area. Science, 356(6345), 1356-1362. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4108

@article{4238b578be8f42dab90bee91b8039b72,

title = "A human-driven decline in global burned area",

abstract = "Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.",

author = "N. Andela and Morton, {D. C.} and L. Giglio and Y. Chen and {Van Der Werf}, {G. R.} and Kasibhatla, {P. S.} and DeFries, {R. S.} and Collatz, {G. J.} and S. Hantson and S. Kloster and D. Bachelet and M. Forrest and G. Lasslop and F. Li and S. Mangeon and Melton, {J. R.} and C. Yue and Randerson, {J. T.}",

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doi = "10.1126/science.aal4108",

language = "English (US)",

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T1 - A human-driven decline in global burned area

AU - Andela, N.

AU - Morton, D. C.

AU - Giglio, L.

AU - Chen, Y.

AU - Van Der Werf, G. R.

AU - Kasibhatla, P. S.

AU - DeFries, R. S.

AU - Collatz, G. J.

AU - Hantson, S.

AU - Kloster, S.

AU - Bachelet, D.

AU - Forrest, M.

AU - Lasslop, G.

AU - Li, F.

AU - Mangeon, S.

AU - Melton, J. R.

AU - Yue, C.

AU - Randerson, J. T.

PY - 2017/6/30

Y1 - 2017/6/30

N2 - Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

AB - Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

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DO - 10.1126/science.aal4108

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VL - 356

SP - 1356

EP - 1362

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6345

ER -

A human-driven decline in global burned area

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

UN SDGs

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