TY - JOUR
T1 - Recent precipitation trends, flash floods and landslides in southern Brazil
AU - Ávila, Alvaro
AU - Justino, Flavio
AU - Wilson, Aaron
AU - Bromwich, David
AU - Amorim, Marcelo
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank the Universidade Federal de Vicosa. This work was supported by Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) and to the Minas Gerais Research Foundation (FAPEMIG), agencies for promoting scientific and technological research in Brazil. The lead author expresses his gratitude to National Water Agency (ANA, Portuguese: Agencia Nacional de Aguas) that provided the data used in this work. This is Contribution 1560 of the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2016/11/17
Y1 - 2016/11/17
N2 - In order to understand the rising number of flash floods and landslides in the densely populated region of southeastern Brazil, this study analyzes the spatial and temporal changes in precipitation from 1978 to 2014. We focus on the sensitivity of mountainous regions, specifically the Rio de Janeiro (RJMR) and Santa Catarina (SCMR) regions. Daily rainfall observations are aggregated into annual and seasonal indexes, and RClimdex is used to evaluate a suite of precipitation and extreme event indexes. Results show positive annual and seasonal precipitation trends during all seasons except for the winter season in the RJMR. Diverse change points in their time series, spatial differences in the trends at individual stations, and trends associated with elevation suggest that despite the close proximity of these two regions, climate impacts are not uniform across all of southeastern Brazil. The majority of precipitation-related indexes present positive trends, especially in the extreme precipitation indexes (PRCPTOT, RX1day, Rx5day and R30 mm). Statistically significant positive correlations are discovered between landslides/flash floods events and annual maximum 1-day and 5-day consecutive precipitation, and these indexes may be useful indicators of natural hazard events for this region.
AB - In order to understand the rising number of flash floods and landslides in the densely populated region of southeastern Brazil, this study analyzes the spatial and temporal changes in precipitation from 1978 to 2014. We focus on the sensitivity of mountainous regions, specifically the Rio de Janeiro (RJMR) and Santa Catarina (SCMR) regions. Daily rainfall observations are aggregated into annual and seasonal indexes, and RClimdex is used to evaluate a suite of precipitation and extreme event indexes. Results show positive annual and seasonal precipitation trends during all seasons except for the winter season in the RJMR. Diverse change points in their time series, spatial differences in the trends at individual stations, and trends associated with elevation suggest that despite the close proximity of these two regions, climate impacts are not uniform across all of southeastern Brazil. The majority of precipitation-related indexes present positive trends, especially in the extreme precipitation indexes (PRCPTOT, RX1day, Rx5day and R30 mm). Statistically significant positive correlations are discovered between landslides/flash floods events and annual maximum 1-day and 5-day consecutive precipitation, and these indexes may be useful indicators of natural hazard events for this region.
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U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114029
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114029
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85005973762
SN - 1748-9318
VL - 11
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
IS - 11
M1 - 114029
ER -
