When hot areas cool down. The impact of the concentration of hot zones on social disorganization and collective efficacy in Bogotá during the administration of Enrique Peñalosa (2016-2020).

Project: Research Project

Project Details


As a citizen security strategy for Bogotá, Mayor Enrique Peñalosa (2016-2020) determined to concentrate police resources on 754 "hot areas" of the city. This study aims to assess the medium-term impact of this citizen security policy. For this, we will focus on the impact that the designation of a space as a hot zone had on the processes of social disorganization and collective efficacy of the community. Unlike the evaluation of crime rates, the analysis of social disorganization and collective efficacy makes it possible to determine the medium-term impacts of the policy, since a community with strength in these areas supports better tools to establish informal surveillance networks than discourage crime.
As units of analysis, the sub-units of the electoral censuses and the Zonal Planning Units (UPZ) were selected, since this allows us to evaluate the policy under two separate geographical areas. Being an analysis aimed at determining the counterfactual of the hot zone policy, the zones with the highest concentration of Hot Spots constitute our treatment group. For its part, the control group will be designated based on a propensity score matching analysis.

The impact of the policy will be determined by the average difference between our treatment and control group in their values within the Social Disorganization indices and the Collective Efficacy Index. Both indices will be created through the collection of variables related to the results of social organization and through the preparation of a survey on the individual perceptions of social efficacy of the inhabitants of the selected territories.

Commitments / Obligations

New Knowledge Products
• An academic article in an indexed journal of Anglo-Saxon criminology given the preference for quantitative analysis.
Products of Social Appropriation of Knowledge
• Presentation of results within community boards of the intervened territories in order to disseminate the most relevant characteristics of the impact of public policy. However, in addition to presenting results, the aim is to socialize with the community how their interaction with the police develops. This will allow us to identify the keys that allow developing or undermining the empowerment of the collective actions of the communities.
• Final report
Effective start/end date2/1/2012/30/20

UN Sustainable Development Goals

In 2015, UN member states agreed to 17 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all. This project contributes towards the following SDG(s):

  • SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Main Funding Source

  • Installed Capacity (Academic Unit)


  • Bogotá D.C.


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