REDUCING CLIMATE PROJECTION UNCERTAINTIES IN SOUTH AMERICA Climat-Amsud

Future climate changes are projected primarily by Earth system models.

Climate scientists do not rely on a single model and several models have been developed around the world.

Thanks to the ensemble of multiple models we can calculate future climate trajectories and uncertainties.

One source of uncertainty comes from the structure of the models and how the different mechanisms are represented and parameterized.

One of the main challenges for climate scientists is to reduce these uncertainties.

One possible option is model development, but this is time-consuming and requires large computing and human resources.

The second option is to constrain model projections from current observations to calculate biases and correct modeled data.

This approach is known as an emergent constraint framework.

In the REPRISE collaboration we will analyze current Earth System Model simulations and analyze different output variables related to the carbon cycle, land use and climate, which will be compared with products based on observations.

This work will be carried out through two work packages.

The first will focus on the emerging constraints framework to reduce uncertainties in future projections for output variables and regions.

The second will examine model residuals and identify their drivers to highlight specific aspects of Earth system models that need to be improved to reduce uncertainties in climate projections.

These two work packages will be carried out with a special focus on South America, in order to reduce the uncertainties of climate change in this region.

Two additional work packages dedicated to exploring funding andcommunicating/disseminatig results will also be included to ensure that the current consortium continues after the REPRISE project and to reach local stakeholders.