Project Details
Description
The research proposal aims to study whether leading economic analysts and professional practitioners around the world efficiently use all available information when producing and revising their international oil price forecasts in constantly changing economic and financial environments.
This is of special interest during the year 2020 due to the pandemic caused by the Covid-19 virus.
The project will statistically contrast whether the forecast revision process for this variable is independent of past revisions, which corresponds to what is known in the literature as efficiency in the weak sense.
In cases where the null hypothesis of efficiency in the weak sense is not rejected, we will proceed to statistically contrast whether the forecast revision process is independent of a broad set of variables that are assumed to have been used by the analysts, which corresponds to what is known in the literature as efficiency in the strong sense.
This allows us to determine the variables that are most frequently used by professional forecasters and how they change over time.
This is of special interest during the year 2020 due to the pandemic caused by the Covid-19 virus.
The project will statistically contrast whether the forecast revision process for this variable is independent of past revisions, which corresponds to what is known in the literature as efficiency in the weak sense.
In cases where the null hypothesis of efficiency in the weak sense is not rejected, we will proceed to statistically contrast whether the forecast revision process is independent of a broad set of variables that are assumed to have been used by the analysts, which corresponds to what is known in the literature as efficiency in the strong sense.
This allows us to determine the variables that are most frequently used by professional forecasters and how they change over time.
Keywords
Efficiency, forecasts, oil, expectations surveys, pandemic.
| Status | Finished |
|---|---|
| Effective start/end date | 4/1/22 → 3/14/23 |
UN Sustainable Development Goals
In 2015, UN member states agreed to 17 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all. This project contributes towards the following SDG(s):
Main Funding Source
- Small Amount
Location
- Bogotá D.C.
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