TY - JOUR
T1 - The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil
AU - Zuluaga, Cristian Felipe
AU - Avila-Diaz, Alvaro
AU - Justino, Flavio B.
AU - Martins, Fernando Ramos
AU - Ceron, Wilmar L.
N1 - Funding Information:
We acknowledge the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for supporting this research. The author thanks the graduate program in Applied Meteorology at the Universidade Federal de Viçosa. The authors also thanks the financial support provided by National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). The fifth author was supported by the Universidad del Valle (Cali-Colombia). We acknowledge all the Institutions that make their datasets available, especially the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF.
Funding Information:
We acknowledge the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel ( CAPES ) for supporting this research. The author thanks the graduate program in Applied Meteorology at the Universidade Federal de Viçosa. The authors also thanks the financial support provided by National Council for Scientific and Technological Development ( CNPq ). The fifth author was supported by the Universidad del Valle (Cali-Colombia). We acknowledge all the Institutions that make their datasets available, especially the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022
PY - 2022/6
Y1 - 2022/6
N2 - Photovoltaic power potential (PPV) is part of the strategies in Brazil to satisfy the population's energy demand and contribute to reduction of global warming in the climate change context. This study assesses climate change's impact on PPV using a set of 47 state of the art Earth System Models from CMIP6 under two climate change (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Changes in solar radiation, temperature and PPV are calculated for the near-term (2021–2050) and end-century (2071–2100) future, concerning the historical period (1981–2010). For the future, the sign of climate change is consistent in both scenarios, but with more intense magnitudes in the SSP5-8.5 for the end-century, and indicate a brightening in North region and warming in the whole country. For the near-term future, PPV projects the maximum increases (≈3%) in the North under both scenarios. The most notable decreases in PPV are noticed by the end-century (−5%) over the country, except for the extreme north. The sensitivity to the increase in temperature of current PPV systems' technology would not allow increases in the yield of PPV, canceling the positive effect of the brightening.
AB - Photovoltaic power potential (PPV) is part of the strategies in Brazil to satisfy the population's energy demand and contribute to reduction of global warming in the climate change context. This study assesses climate change's impact on PPV using a set of 47 state of the art Earth System Models from CMIP6 under two climate change (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Changes in solar radiation, temperature and PPV are calculated for the near-term (2021–2050) and end-century (2071–2100) future, concerning the historical period (1981–2010). For the future, the sign of climate change is consistent in both scenarios, but with more intense magnitudes in the SSP5-8.5 for the end-century, and indicate a brightening in North region and warming in the whole country. For the near-term future, PPV projects the maximum increases (≈3%) in the North under both scenarios. The most notable decreases in PPV are noticed by the end-century (−5%) over the country, except for the extreme north. The sensitivity to the increase in temperature of current PPV systems' technology would not allow increases in the yield of PPV, canceling the positive effect of the brightening.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.029
DO - 10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.029
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85130604594
SN - 0960-1481
VL - 193
SP - 1019
EP - 1031
JO - Renewable Energy
JF - Renewable Energy
ER -
