TY - JOUR
T1 - Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions
AU - Rowlinson, Matthew J.
AU - Rap, Alexandru
AU - Hamilton, Douglas S.
AU - Pope, Richard J.
AU - Hantson, Stijn
AU - Arnold, Steve R.
AU - Kaplan, Jed O.
AU - Arneth, Almut
AU - Chipperfield, Martyn P.
AU - Forster, Piers M.
AU - Nieradzik, Lars M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 EDP Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/9/22
Y1 - 2020/9/22
N2 - pTropospheric ozone concentrations are sensitive to natural emissions of precursor compounds. In contrast to existing assumptions, recent evidence indicates that terrestrial vegetation emissions in the pre-industrial era were larger than in the present day. We use a chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to show that revised inventories of pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions lead to an increase in simulated pre-industrial ozone concentrations, decreasing the estimated pre-industrial to present-day tropospheric ozone radiative forcing by up to 34 % (0.38 to 0.25 W mspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-2/span). We find that this change is sensitive to employing biomass burning and biogenic emissions inventories based on matching vegetation patterns, as the co-location of emission sources enhances the effect on ozone formation. Our forcing estimates are at the lower end of existing uncertainty range estimates (0.2-0.6 W mspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-2/span), without accounting for other sources of uncertainty. Thus, future work should focus on reassessing the uncertainty range of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing.
AB - pTropospheric ozone concentrations are sensitive to natural emissions of precursor compounds. In contrast to existing assumptions, recent evidence indicates that terrestrial vegetation emissions in the pre-industrial era were larger than in the present day. We use a chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to show that revised inventories of pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions lead to an increase in simulated pre-industrial ozone concentrations, decreasing the estimated pre-industrial to present-day tropospheric ozone radiative forcing by up to 34 % (0.38 to 0.25 W mspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-2/span). We find that this change is sensitive to employing biomass burning and biogenic emissions inventories based on matching vegetation patterns, as the co-location of emission sources enhances the effect on ozone formation. Our forcing estimates are at the lower end of existing uncertainty range estimates (0.2-0.6 W mspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-2/span), without accounting for other sources of uncertainty. Thus, future work should focus on reassessing the uncertainty range of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing.
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U2 - 10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020
DO - 10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020
M3 - Research Article
AN - SCOPUS:85092052948
SN - 1680-7316
VL - 20
SP - 10937
EP - 10951
JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
IS - 18
ER -