Time-varying global crude oil price networks: Benchmarks and underlying drivers

The crude oil market is a major commodity market characterised by the heterogeneity of individual crude oils in terms of production location and physical attributes. This paper applies recent econometric methods to examine how causal relationships between traditional benchmark prices and a broad set of individual crudes have evolved over time. Although the market has become more interconnected, the roles of specific crudes, including established benchmarks, have shifted markedly. The dominance of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crudes declined for more than a decade after the US shale boom around 2010, while Middle Eastern crudes gained importance, particularly in Asia. Geopolitical disruptions following Russia s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 then prompted a renewed rise in US crude influence, with WTI Cushing, OK, and WTI Midland regaining leadership. Geographical origin and physical characteristics have also shaped these dynamics. Understanding how benchmarks and causality evolve is relevant for pricing, risk management and hedging.