TY - JOUR
T1 - The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures
T2 - A panel data approach
AU - Iregui, Ana María
AU - Otero, Jesús
N1 - Funding Information:
This paper was started while Jesús Otero was a Visiting Scholar in the World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) of the United Nations University (UNU) in Helsinki. Jesús Otero would like to express his gratitude to UNU-WIDER for providing a welcoming and supportive environment for this research. Its financial support is also gratefully acknowledged. We thank Stephan Pfaffenzeller who kindly updated and provided the dataset used in the paper. We also thank Imed Drine, Monica Giulietti, James Thurlow, an anonymous referee and seminar participants at UNU-WIDER for their comments and suggestions. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
Copyright:
Copyright 2013 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2013/4
Y1 - 2013/4
N2 - This paper examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of twenty-four commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (ii) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and Rao (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 70:245-269, 2008) test is employed. The findings suggest that all commodity prices exhibit a structural break whose location differs across series, and that support for the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis is mixed. Once the breaks are removed from the underlying series, the persistence of commodity price shocks is shorter than that obtained in other studies using alternative methodologies.
AB - This paper examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of twenty-four commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (ii) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and Rao (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 70:245-269, 2008) test is employed. The findings suggest that all commodity prices exhibit a structural break whose location differs across series, and that support for the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis is mixed. Once the breaks are removed from the underlying series, the persistence of commodity price shocks is shorter than that obtained in other studies using alternative methodologies.
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U2 - 10.1007/s10258-012-0086-3
DO - 10.1007/s10258-012-0086-3
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84876087072
SN - 1617-982X
VL - 12
SP - 35
EP - 56
JO - Portuguese Economic Journal
JF - Portuguese Economic Journal
IS - 1
ER -