The Beveridge Curve Across US States: New Insights From a Pairwise Approach

This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the unemployment–vacancy rate relationship at state-level within a pairwise environment in which the unemployment rate in one state is inversely related to the vacancy rate in another. We find that Beveridge curve shifting, or matching efficiency, is driven by factors that include distance between states, the labour force participation rate, homeownership and the relative affordability of housing between states. A pairwise recursive analysis points to a decrease in matching efficiency in the period that followed the Great Recession.