Socio-Ecological Dynamics Generated by Hydrocarbon Exploration

Oil activity has been highly criticized around the world. This paper studies how oil exploration generates different dynamics in three types of landscapes in the Amazon region. In this way, has been proposed a systemic mathematical model based on system dynamics, obtaining a piecewise smooth system of ordinary differential equations, for analyzing the behavior of three scenarios: pristine landscapes, agricultural landscapes, and landscapes with illicit crops. The results suggest that oil exploration activity generates a socioeconomic impulse with consequences that may be undesirable, which depends on the assimilation capacity of the landscape. In the case of pristine landscapes, the simulations show that the assimilation of the disturbance is carried out by the ecological system, showing complete resilience to oil exploration activity. On the other hand, in agricultural landscapes, the dynamism of oil exploration leads to an increase in the urban area and the need to increase food imports due to the loss of agricultural areas. Finally, in landscapes with illicit crops, where land retention and social coercion are notorious, the simulations show that the increase in urban areas and their infrastructure lead to the transformation of illicit uses to agricultural uses. In conclusion, the exploration of hydrocarbons in the Amazonian landscapes produces a socio-economic stimulus that triggers a series of effects that deteriorate the socio-ecological system and put the ecosystem services produced by this strategic ecosystem on the planet at risk.