Presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers’ estimation and expected person-to-person spreading among repatriated passengers returning from China

Aníbal A. Teherán; Gabriel Camero; Ronald Prado; Benjamin Moreno; Harol Trujillo; Rafael A. Ramírez; Diana C. Miranda; Alberto Paníz-Mondolfi; Juan David Ramírez

doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101688

Presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers’ estimation and expected person-to-person spreading among repatriated passengers returning from China

Título traducido de la contribución: Estimación de presuntos portadores asintomáticos de COVID-19 y propagación prevista de persona a persona entre los pasajeros repatriados que regresan de China

Aníbal A. Teherán, Gabriel Camero, Ronald Prado, Benjamin Moreno, Harol Trujillo, Rafael A. Ramírez, Diana C. Miranda, Alberto Paníz-Mondolfi, Juan David Ramírez

Producción científica: Contribución a una revista › Carta › revisión exhaustiva

4 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

En las últimas 10 semanas la epidemia de COVID-19 ha superado entre 10 y 32 veces el número total de casos confirmados de SARS y MERS respectivamente. Esto ha obligado a varios países del mundo a establecer planes extraordinarios en materia de Salud Pública para evitar la expansión global, incluyendo el diseño logístico y las directrices con altos estándares de seguridad para repatriar a los ciudadanos residentes en China [1,2]. Creemos que la información publicada diariamente en documentos científicos como en material gris de entidades gubernamentales puede ser muy valiosa para estimar la proporción conjunta de presuntos portadores asintomáticos de COVID-19 (PAC-COVID-19). También es posible determinar el número de PAC-COVID-19 durante un plan de repatriación ajustándose al R0 actual en Wuhan, para estimar la frecuencia de repatriados en los que posiblemente podría propagarse la infección, en el contexto de un repatriado sintomático positivo para COVID- 19. Por lo tanto, aquí lo hicimos incluyendo la construcción de una calculadora en línea para estimar los presuntos portadores asintomáticos de COVID-19.

Título traducido de la contribución	Estimación de presuntos portadores asintomáticos de COVID-19 y propagación prevista de persona a persona entre los pasajeros repatriados que regresan de China
Idioma original	Inglés estadounidense
Número de artículo	101688
Publicación	Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
Volumen	37
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101688
Estado	En prensa - dic. 4 2020

Áreas temáticas de ASJC Scopus

Salud pública, medioambiental y laboral
Enfermedades infecciosas

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

Este resultado contribuye a los siguientes Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible

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10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101688

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Teherán, A. A., Camero, G., Prado, R., Moreno, B., Trujillo, H., Ramírez, R. A., Miranda, D. C., Paníz-Mondolfi, A., & Ramírez, J. D. (Aceptado/En prensa). Presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers’ estimation and expected person-to-person spreading among repatriated passengers returning from China. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 37, Artículo 101688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101688

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title = "Presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers{\textquoteright} estimation and expected person-to-person spreading among repatriated passengers returning from China",

abstract = "Over the last 10 weeks the COVID-19 epidemic has exceeded 10 to 32 times the total number of confirmed SARS and MERS cases respectively. This has forced several countries around the world to establish extraordinary plans in terms of Public Health in order to prevent global expansion, including logistic design and guidelines with high security standards to repatriate citizens residing in China [1,2]. We believe that the information published daily in scientific documents as in gray material from government entities may be extremely valuable for estimating the pooled proportion of suspected asymptomatic carriers for COVID-19 (PAC-COVID-19). It is also possible to determine the number of PAC-COVID-19 during a repatriation plan by adjusting to the current R0 in Wuhan, to estimate the frequency of returnees in whom the infection could possibly spread, in context of a positive symptomatic returnee for COVID- 19. Therefore, herein we did so including the building of an online calculator to estimate the presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers.",

author = "Teher{\'a}n, {An{\'i}bal A.} and Gabriel Camero and Ronald Prado and Benjamin Moreno and Harol Trujillo and Ram{\'i}rez, {Rafael A.} and Miranda, {Diana C.} and Alberto Pan{\'i}z-Mondolfi and Ram{\'i}rez, {Juan David}",

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Teherán, AA, Camero, G, Prado, R, Moreno, B, Trujillo, H, Ramírez, RA, Miranda, DC, Paníz-Mondolfi, A & Ramírez, JD 2020, 'Presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers’ estimation and expected person-to-person spreading among repatriated passengers returning from China', Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, vol. 37, 101688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101688

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T1 - Presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers’ estimation and expected person-to-person spreading among repatriated passengers returning from China

AU - Teherán, Aníbal A.

AU - Camero, Gabriel

AU - Prado, Ronald

AU - Moreno, Benjamin

AU - Trujillo, Harol

AU - Ramírez, Rafael A.

AU - Miranda, Diana C.

AU - Paníz-Mondolfi, Alberto

AU - Ramírez, Juan David

PY - 2020/12/4

Y1 - 2020/12/4

N2 - Over the last 10 weeks the COVID-19 epidemic has exceeded 10 to 32 times the total number of confirmed SARS and MERS cases respectively. This has forced several countries around the world to establish extraordinary plans in terms of Public Health in order to prevent global expansion, including logistic design and guidelines with high security standards to repatriate citizens residing in China [1,2]. We believe that the information published daily in scientific documents as in gray material from government entities may be extremely valuable for estimating the pooled proportion of suspected asymptomatic carriers for COVID-19 (PAC-COVID-19). It is also possible to determine the number of PAC-COVID-19 during a repatriation plan by adjusting to the current R0 in Wuhan, to estimate the frequency of returnees in whom the infection could possibly spread, in context of a positive symptomatic returnee for COVID- 19. Therefore, herein we did so including the building of an online calculator to estimate the presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers.

AB - Over the last 10 weeks the COVID-19 epidemic has exceeded 10 to 32 times the total number of confirmed SARS and MERS cases respectively. This has forced several countries around the world to establish extraordinary plans in terms of Public Health in order to prevent global expansion, including logistic design and guidelines with high security standards to repatriate citizens residing in China [1,2]. We believe that the information published daily in scientific documents as in gray material from government entities may be extremely valuable for estimating the pooled proportion of suspected asymptomatic carriers for COVID-19 (PAC-COVID-19). It is also possible to determine the number of PAC-COVID-19 during a repatriation plan by adjusting to the current R0 in Wuhan, to estimate the frequency of returnees in whom the infection could possibly spread, in context of a positive symptomatic returnee for COVID- 19. Therefore, herein we did so including the building of an online calculator to estimate the presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers.

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Presumptive asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers’ estimation and expected person-to-person spreading among repatriated passengers returning from China

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Áreas temáticas de ASJC Scopus

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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