The Real Winner´s Curse

Título traducido de la contribución: La verdadera maldición del ganador

Juan Fernando Vargas Duque, Leopoldo Fergusson, Alejandro Ruiz-Guarin, Pablo Querubin

Resultado de la investigación: Documento de Trabajo

Resumen


Se estudia el efecto sobre la violencia de la llegada de grupos previamente excluidos (en particular,
de izquierda) a la oficina ejecutiva local de los municipios colombianos. Utilizando una regresión
de discontinuidad, mostramos que mientras la violencia de las guerrillas de izquierda y el gobierno
no se ve afectado cuando la izquierda gana las elecciones a la alcaldía, los ataques de los paramilitares de derecha
aumento de entre cuatro y cinco por cada 100.000 habitantes, casi el triple con respecto a la muestra
y cerca del 80%-100% de una desviación estándar. Interpretamos este aumento de la violencia
como una reacción de facto de las élites políticas y económicas tradicionales que tratan de contrarrestar el aumento
en el poder de jure de los forasteros después de ganar el cargo. De acuerdo con esta interpretación,
encontramos que el aumento de la violencia se concentra en el año de las siguientes elecciones
y como resultado, los titulares del ala izquierda disfrutan de una desventaja de ocupación de puestos mayor que otras
de los partidos tradicionales en Colombia. También encontramos (más evidencia tentativa) que la izquierda implementa
las políticas agrarias que amenazan a los aliados más notorios de los paramilitares: grandes
terratenientes. Estos efectos ponen de relieve los riesgos no deseados de la inclusión política en las sociedades
con instituciones débiles, una presencia desigual del estado a través de su territorio, y características de
el autoritarismo subnacional.
Idioma originalEnglish (US)
Número de páginas58
EstadoPublished - may 25 2016

Huella dactilar

violence
election
economic elite
land policy
authoritarianism
political elite
Colombia
allies
inhabitant
municipality
inclusion
regression
interpretation
society
evidence
Group

Citar esto

Vargas Duque, J. F., Fergusson, L., Ruiz-Guarin, A., & Querubin, P. (2016). The Real Winner´s Curse.
Vargas Duque, Juan Fernando ; Fergusson, Leopoldo ; Ruiz-Guarin, Alejandro ; Querubin, Pablo . / The Real Winner´s Curse. 2016.
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abstract = "We study the effect on violence of the arrival of previously excluded groups (in particular,left-leaning parties) to local executive office in Colombian municipalities. Using a regressiondiscontinuity approach, we show that while violence from left-wing guerrillas and the governmentis unaffected when the left wins mayoral elections, attacks by right-wing paramilitariesincrease by about four to five per 100,000 inhabitants, almost a tripling relative to the samplemean and close to 80{\%}-100{\%} of a standard deviation. We interpret this increase in violenceas a de facto reaction of traditional political and economic elites trying to counteract the increasein de jure power of outsiders after they win office. Consistent with this interpretation,we find that the surge in violence is concentrated in the year of the subsequent electionsand as a result left wing incumbents enjoy an incumbency disadvantage larger than otherincumbent parties in Colombia. We also find (more tentative evidence) that the left implementsland policies that are threatening to the most notorious allies of paramilitaries: largelandowners. These effects highlight the unintended risks of political inclusion in societieswith weak institutions, an uneven presence of the state across its territory, and features ofsubnational authoritarianism.",
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Vargas Duque, JF, Fergusson, L, Ruiz-Guarin, A & Querubin, P 2016 'The Real Winner´s Curse'.

The Real Winner´s Curse. / Vargas Duque, Juan Fernando; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Ruiz-Guarin, Alejandro; Querubin, Pablo .

2016.

Resultado de la investigación: Documento de Trabajo

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N2 - We study the effect on violence of the arrival of previously excluded groups (in particular,left-leaning parties) to local executive office in Colombian municipalities. Using a regressiondiscontinuity approach, we show that while violence from left-wing guerrillas and the governmentis unaffected when the left wins mayoral elections, attacks by right-wing paramilitariesincrease by about four to five per 100,000 inhabitants, almost a tripling relative to the samplemean and close to 80%-100% of a standard deviation. We interpret this increase in violenceas a de facto reaction of traditional political and economic elites trying to counteract the increasein de jure power of outsiders after they win office. Consistent with this interpretation,we find that the surge in violence is concentrated in the year of the subsequent electionsand as a result left wing incumbents enjoy an incumbency disadvantage larger than otherincumbent parties in Colombia. We also find (more tentative evidence) that the left implementsland policies that are threatening to the most notorious allies of paramilitaries: largelandowners. These effects highlight the unintended risks of political inclusion in societieswith weak institutions, an uneven presence of the state across its territory, and features ofsubnational authoritarianism.

AB - We study the effect on violence of the arrival of previously excluded groups (in particular,left-leaning parties) to local executive office in Colombian municipalities. Using a regressiondiscontinuity approach, we show that while violence from left-wing guerrillas and the governmentis unaffected when the left wins mayoral elections, attacks by right-wing paramilitariesincrease by about four to five per 100,000 inhabitants, almost a tripling relative to the samplemean and close to 80%-100% of a standard deviation. We interpret this increase in violenceas a de facto reaction of traditional political and economic elites trying to counteract the increasein de jure power of outsiders after they win office. Consistent with this interpretation,we find that the surge in violence is concentrated in the year of the subsequent electionsand as a result left wing incumbents enjoy an incumbency disadvantage larger than otherincumbent parties in Colombia. We also find (more tentative evidence) that the left implementsland policies that are threatening to the most notorious allies of paramilitaries: largelandowners. These effects highlight the unintended risks of political inclusion in societieswith weak institutions, an uneven presence of the state across its territory, and features ofsubnational authoritarianism.

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Vargas Duque JF, Fergusson L, Ruiz-Guarin A, Querubin P. The Real Winner´s Curse. 2016 may 25.