Exploring the urban systemic scenarios of improving socioecological conditions in an informal settlement of a developing country with a system dynamics model

Informal settlements (IS) present a complex system of social, economic, and ecological interactions that arise spontaneously and unplanned in urban areas and require a forward-looking and comprehensive approach to address their socio-ecological interactions. Moreover, an IS is conceptually considered a sub-system within a broader urban system, interacting with and influenced by internal and external factors. This study aims to model these interactions and factors using System Dynamics (SD), with the objective of simulating and evaluating decisions, actions, and their dynamic consequences concerning settlement consolidation (e.g., enhancing and optimizing urban areas) and improving women's access to formal employment opportunities. Consequently, a 10 year framework SD model for five scenarios was developed, including: (S0) Business as Usual (BAU); (S1) Time quality scenario; (S2) Women in formal employment scenario; (S3) Circularity scenario; and (S4) Comprehensive scenario. The results indicate that the implementation of individual solutions, such as improving the quality of men's working time (without overtime), formal employment for women (equalizing income conditions with men), water circularity (use of fog catchers and the recycling of greywater as a supply), and organic waste management (organic compost for urban gardens and the implementation of urban agriculture), does not fully leverage potential synergies. However, a comprehensive scenario that combines individual solutions jointly achieves a decrease in the time needed to improve women's conditions in formal employability (47.5 %), which is related to the settlement consolidation process. These findings provide insight into possible action strategies and policy implications for effectively addressing the challenges associated with informal settlements.