A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Resultado de la investigación: Contribución a RevistaArtículo

1 Cita (Scopus)

Resumen

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Idioma originalEnglish (US)
Páginas (desde-hasta)4537-4562
Número de páginas26
PublicaciónGeoscientific Model Development
Volumen11
N.º11
DOI
EstadoPublished - nov 13 2018

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Citar esto

@article{46a806bba79140fa9b3ad5ae0674e608,
title = "A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios",
abstract = "To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.",
author = "Hyejin Kim and Rosa, {Isabel M.D.} and Rob Alkemade and Paul Leadley and George Hurtt and Alexander Popp and {Van Vuuren}, {Detlef P.} and Peter Anthoni and Almut Arneth and Daniele Baisero and Emma Caton and Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer and Louise Chini and {De Palma}, Adriana and {Di Fulvio}, Fulvio and {Di Marco}, Moreno and Felipe Espinoza and Simon Ferrier and Shinichiro Fujimori and Gonzalez, {Ricardo E.} and Maya Gueguen and Carlos Guerra and Mike Harfoot and Harwood, {Thomas D.} and Tomoko Hasegawa and Vanessa Haverd and Petr Havl{\'i}k and Stefanie Hellweg and Hill, {Samantha L.L.} and Akiko Hirata and Hoskins, {Andrew J.} and Janse, {Jan H.} and Walter Jetz and Johnson, {Justin A.} and Andreas Krause and David Lecl{\`e}re and Martins, {Ines S.} and Tetsuya Matsui and Cory Merow and Michael Obersteiner and Haruka Ohashi and Benjamin Poulter and Andy Purvis and Benjamin Quesada and Carlo Rondinini and Schipper, {Aafke M.} and Richard Sharp and Kiyoshi Takahashi and Wilfried Thuiller and Nicolas Titeux",
year = "2018",
month = "11",
day = "13",
doi = "10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "11",
pages = "4537--4562",
journal = "Geoscientific Model Development",
issn = "1991-959X",
publisher = "Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH",
number = "11",

}

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. /.

En: Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, N.º 11, 13.11.2018, p. 4537-4562.

Resultado de la investigación: Contribución a RevistaArtículo

TY - JOUR

T1 - A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

AU - Kim, Hyejin

AU - Rosa, Isabel M.D.

AU - Alkemade, Rob

AU - Leadley, Paul

AU - Hurtt, George

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

AU - Anthoni, Peter

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Baisero, Daniele

AU - Caton, Emma

AU - Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca

AU - Chini, Louise

AU - De Palma, Adriana

AU - Di Fulvio, Fulvio

AU - Di Marco, Moreno

AU - Espinoza, Felipe

AU - Ferrier, Simon

AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro

AU - Gonzalez, Ricardo E.

AU - Gueguen, Maya

AU - Guerra, Carlos

AU - Harfoot, Mike

AU - Harwood, Thomas D.

AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko

AU - Haverd, Vanessa

AU - Havlík, Petr

AU - Hellweg, Stefanie

AU - Hill, Samantha L.L.

AU - Hirata, Akiko

AU - Hoskins, Andrew J.

AU - Janse, Jan H.

AU - Jetz, Walter

AU - Johnson, Justin A.

AU - Krause, Andreas

AU - Leclère, David

AU - Martins, Ines S.

AU - Matsui, Tetsuya

AU - Merow, Cory

AU - Obersteiner, Michael

AU - Ohashi, Haruka

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Purvis, Andy

AU - Quesada, Benjamin

AU - Rondinini, Carlo

AU - Schipper, Aafke M.

AU - Sharp, Richard

AU - Takahashi, Kiyoshi

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Titeux, Nicolas

PY - 2018/11/13

Y1 - 2018/11/13

N2 - To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

AB - To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85056670927&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018

DO - 10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018

M3 - Article

VL - 11

SP - 4537

EP - 4562

JO - Geoscientific Model Development

JF - Geoscientific Model Development

SN - 1991-959X

IS - 11

ER -