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Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions

  • Matthew J. Rowlinson
  • , Alexandru Rap
  • , Douglas S. Hamilton
  • , Richard J. Pope
  • , Stijn Hantson
  • , Steve R. Arnold
  • , Jed O. Kaplan
  • , Almut Arneth
  • , Martyn P. Chipperfield
  • , Piers M. Forster
  • , Lars M. Nieradzik

Research output: Contribution to JournalResearch Articlepeer-review

Abstract

pTropospheric ozone concentrations are sensitive to natural emissions of precursor compounds. In contrast to existing assumptions, recent evidence indicates that terrestrial vegetation emissions in the pre-industrial era were larger than in the present day. We use a chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to show that revised inventories of pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions lead to an increase in simulated pre-industrial ozone concentrations, decreasing the estimated pre-industrial to present-day tropospheric ozone radiative forcing by up to 34 % (0.38 to 0.25 W mspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-2/span). We find that this change is sensitive to employing biomass burning and biogenic emissions inventories based on matching vegetation patterns, as the co-location of emission sources enhances the effect on ozone formation. Our forcing estimates are at the lower end of existing uncertainty range estimates (0.2-0.6 W mspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-2/span), without accounting for other sources of uncertainty. Thus, future work should focus on reassessing the uncertainty range of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)10937-10951
Number of pages15
JournalAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume20
Issue number18
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 22 2020
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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