Time series forecasting for tuberculosis incidence employing neural network models

Alvaro David Orjuela-Cañón, Andres Leonardo Jutinico, Mario Enrique Duarte González, Carlos Enrique Awad García, Erika Vergara, María Angélica Palencia

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations


Every effort aimed at stopping the expansion of Tuberculosis is important to national programs' struggle to combat this disease. Different computational tools have been proposed in order to design new strategies that allow managing potential patients and thus providing the correct treatment. In this work, artificial neural networks were used for time series forecasting, which were trained with information on reported cases obtained from the national vigilance institution in Colombia. Three neural models were proposed in order to determine the best one according to their forecasting performance. The first approach employed a nonlinear autoregressive model, the second proposal used a recurrent neural network, and the third proposal was based on radial basis functions. The results are presented in terms of the mean average percentage error, which indicates that the models based on traditional methods show better performance compared to connectionist ones. These models contribute to obtaining dynamic information about incidence, thus providing extra-help for health authorities to propose more strategies to control the disease's spread.

Translated title of the contributionPredicción de series temporales de la incidencia de la tuberculosis mediante modelos de redes neuronales
Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere09897
Issue number7
StatePublished - Jul 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General


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