Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment

Ana María Iregui, Héctor M. Núñez, Jesús Otero

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We use the Banco de la República expectations survey of external economic analysts to study whether fixed-event individual forecasts of inflation and exchange rate are updated efficiently when new information becomes available. To this end, we test for weak-form and strong-form efficiency. The novel aspects of this paper are that we relax the individual homogeneity assumption, and consider a forecasters’ information set that contains a large number of empirically relevant variables. We address model selection using two of the most popular methods available in the penalised regression literature, and a new form of multiple testing. Our results show that more than half of the analysts’ revisions are independent of one another (weakly efficient). Also, conditional on passing weak efficiency, we find that analysts use past values of inflation and exchange rate changes to revise their forecasts and a broader array of variables during periods of market instability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)290-314
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Volume187
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management

Cite this