TY - JOUR
T1 - Sovereign risk and armed conflict
T2 - An event-study for Colombia
AU - Castañeda, Andrés
AU - Vargas, Juan F.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2012 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2012/4
Y1 - 2012/4
N2 - We study the causal effect of recent landmark events of the Colombian armed conflict on the foreign perception of sovereign risk, as measured by the price of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) of Colombian bonds. We construct a Synthetic Control Group to use as the non-conflict counterfactual of the Colombian CDS price and compare its behavior around relevant conflict-event dates with that of the actual (conflict-affected) Colombian CDS. Results suggest that the impact of conflict on the foreign perception of sovereign risk is sizable but rather idiosyncratic, and depends on the political context surrounding each event.
AB - We study the causal effect of recent landmark events of the Colombian armed conflict on the foreign perception of sovereign risk, as measured by the price of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) of Colombian bonds. We construct a Synthetic Control Group to use as the non-conflict counterfactual of the Colombian CDS price and compare its behavior around relevant conflict-event dates with that of the actual (conflict-affected) Colombian CDS. Results suggest that the impact of conflict on the foreign perception of sovereign risk is sizable but rather idiosyncratic, and depends on the political context surrounding each event.
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U2 - 10.1080/10242694.2011.597233
DO - 10.1080/10242694.2011.597233
M3 - Research Article
AN - SCOPUS:84858609509
SN - 1024-2694
VL - 23
SP - 185
EP - 201
JO - Defence and Peace Economics
JF - Defence and Peace Economics
IS - 2
ER -
