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Production and portfolio choice under jump–diffusion productivity shocks

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Abstract

How should an entrepreneur jointly allocate capital across production inputs and invest in financial markets when productivity is subject to rare discrete shocks? We formulate this as a stochastic control problem that reduces explicitly to a static risk-adjusted profit maximization, with a closed-form value function and consumption rule under both constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) preferences. The risk-adjusted cost encodes three nonadditive interactions: a hedging demand linking production and portfolio decisions through productivity-return correlation, a variance penalty on correlated input holdings, and a jump correction that penalizes large positions because discrete productivity losses cannot be hedged through liquidation. Jump risk and productivity-return correlation amplify each other, so partial models systematically underestimate total risk costs. Firms exposed to supply disruptions, financial crises, or technological shifts should therefore treat input allocation as a portfolio problem, not a purely technological one.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number107773
JournalEconomic Modelling
Volume164
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2026

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics

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