Forecasting retail fuel prices with spatial interdependencies

Adam Clements; Jesús Otero

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112128

Forecasting retail fuel prices with spatial interdependencies

Adam Clements, Jesús Otero

Faculty of Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper forecasts station-level retail fuel prices using econometric methods, incorporating spatial interdependencies. Error correction models with cross-sectional dependence outperform autoregressive models with wholesale prices or spatial effects, demonstrating the benefits of spatial interdependencies in terms of improved forecasting performance.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	112128
Journal	Economics Letters
Volume	247
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112128
State	Published - Feb 2025

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Finance
Economics and Econometrics

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10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112128

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title = "Forecasting retail fuel prices with spatial interdependencies",

abstract = "This paper forecasts station-level retail fuel prices using econometric methods, incorporating spatial interdependencies. Error correction models with cross-sectional dependence outperform autoregressive models with wholesale prices or spatial effects, demonstrating the benefits of spatial interdependencies in terms of improved forecasting performance.",

author = "Adam Clements and Jes{\'u}s Otero",

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year = "2025",

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language = "English (US)",

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AU - Clements, Adam

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DO - 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112128

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SN - 0165-1765

VL - 247

JO - Economics Letters

JF - Economics Letters

M1 - 112128

ER -

Forecasting retail fuel prices with spatial interdependencies

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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