Climate change, natural resources, and conflict

This paper examines how climate change and natural resource dynamics contribute to conflict, with a focus on the implications of the green transition. It reviews empirical evidence showing that extreme weather events—such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves—are linked to increased violence, particularly through economic disruptions, reduced agricultural productivity, and displacement. The analysis also explores the mechanisms through which climate shocks influence conflict, including opportunity costs, resource competition, and behavioural responses to environmental stress. The discussion then turns to the role of natural resource exploitation, especially in the context of rising demand for minerals essential to low-carbon technologies. The paper highlights how resource price and availability shocks can trigger conflict, often depending on the type of resource, extraction method, and local governance. It also addresses the overlap between climate- and resource-driven conflict risks, emphasizing that their interaction may amplify instability. Throughout, the paper identifies open research questions related to prediction, the effects of long-run environmental changes, and the design of policy responses. These include insurance schemes, climate adaptation strategies, infrastructure investment, and regulatory frameworks for resource governance. The findings point to the need for research that integrates climate and conflict dynamics, with the goal of informing policies that can mitigate the risks associated with environmental change and resource pressures.