Changes in the frequencies of occurrence of maximum daily precipitation for the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte – Brazil

Extreme precipitation events in Brazilian metropolitan areas, are projected to intensify as climate warming continues. This study assesses future changes in daily precipitation quantiles for a set of return periods in the MRBH under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5, across short (2015–2045), medium (2045–2075), and long-term (2075–2100). The average projected changes indicate that, in the short term, under the SSP1–2.6 scenario, precipitation quantiles decrease for return periods longer than two years (ranging from 8.17 % to 16.16 %), while a slight increase (0.15 % to 9.97 %) is observed for the 2-year return period at 69 % of the stations. In contrast, the SSP5–8.5 scenario consistently increases across all return periods (ranging from 0.017 % to 26.16 %). In the medium and long terms, both scenarios project an increment in precipitation quantiles. In the medium term, the SSP1–2.6 scenario shows increases ranging from 0.013 % to 37.27 %, while the SSP5–8.5 scenario shows a variation from 0.0093 % to 37.22 %. In the long term, increases range from 0.21 % to 33.38 % under the SSP1–2.6 scenario and from 0.014 % to 66.03 % under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. These findings suggest extreme rainfall events may intensify, leading to more frequent and severe flood events.